Friday, March 28, 2014

Germany bolsters David Cameron's reform push

"Come on prime minister, what are you going to get?" That's been the question pursuing David Cameron since he promised to renegotiate Britain's relationship with Europe and put the package to an in/out referendum by the end of 2017 if the Conservatives win next year's general election.
And now, helpfully sandwiched between the Nick Clegg/Nigel Farage debates and two months before the European elections, comes a very helpful intervention from German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble.
Berlin is driving efforts to bind countries using the euro closer together. A swift, surgical change to Europe's treaties is Chancellor Angela Merkel's preference. And Germany has now made clear that any treaty change must "guarantee fairness" to the 10 EU countries outside the eurozone - including Britain.
In other words, there must be legal safeguards in place to make sure the single market works in the interests of all European Union countries, not just those with the single currency.
Diplomatic push Britain has lavished huge diplomatic attention on Germany and it's clearly paying off. Berlin understands that David Cameron needs answers to that key question and is willing to help.
On the doorstep in the European elections, Conservative candidates will now point to this as evidence that Britain's interests within the EU can be protected.
The City of London too, will be reassured.
But these are early days. Soon there'll be a new set of MEPs, a new European Commission and the UK general election is more than a year away. And not all of Europe - particularly France - shares Germany's enthusiasm for treaty change.
Nor will this be enough on its own to satisfy Conservative MPs, who have been promised a return of powers from Brussels to London. Persuading Germany to agree to that - let alone the rest of the EU - by 2017 is a much tougher ask.
UK PM David Cameron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, 21 Mar 14

National Front rattles French elite

The first round of the municipal elections may have been a high-point for France's anti-EU National Front (FN), but it probably won't be the high-point of 2014.
That's more likely to be at May's European elections.
The town hall elections have proved that Marine Le Pen's twin strategy of "de-demonisation" and grassroots implantation is working. The second round is this Sunday.
Normally, the municipal vote is the one the FN does worst in. Marine's father Jean-Marie Le Pen, the party founder, was fixated with the presidential race.
He rather despised the rank-and-file, and little was done to train up local cadres.
That has changed. And the party has successfully rebranded itself. The look and language are more professional. The nasty element has been sidelined.
The result is that the party is well on the way to building up a nationwide structure, with influence beyond its traditional bases in the north and south-east.
And if it all came together for the town hall elections, how much more likely that the Europeans will prove an even greater success.
Anti-establishment force The Europeans are elections in which people have always felt free to register a protest. On top of that, the EU is one of the FN's recurring themes.
Plus there is the fact that (unlike other French elections) the Europeans are conducted under proportional representation - which for once allows the FN to win a number of seats that reflects its national score.
Opinion polls suggest the FN and centre-right UMP will vie for top place in May.
More than likely, many people who normally vote Socialist will abstain (as they have done in the municipals) or even vote for the FN.
As many have pointed out, the FN is becoming the new party of the working class. Arguably it is taking the place of the old Communist Party, which back in the 60s was a genuine third party challenging mainstream left and right.
With 20-25% of the vote the FN could get 15 to 20 MEPs, and it would be a short step to creating a parliamentary group with allies from other countries.
But more to the point, if the party comes first in May - which it could well do - it would be a political earthquake.
The National Front: France's most popular party!
If it happens, Marine Le Pen has said she will call for France's National Assembly to be dissolved - and new elections to reflect the new reality.
Marine Le Pen, FN leader

Flight MH370: 'Objects spotted' in new search area

Five planes have spotted "objects" in the new area of the Indian Ocean being searched for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, Australian officials say.
The sightings would need confirmation by ship, possibly on Saturday, the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (Amsa) said in a statement.
Earlier it was announced the search would now focus on an area 1,100km (700 miles) north-east of the previous zone.
The Beijing-bound airliner disappeared on 8 March with 239 people on board.
A Royal New Zealand Air Force Orion first spotted "a number of objects white or light in colour and a fishing buoy", Amsa said.
Did previous photos show plane debris?
  • Satellite images so far could show anything from lost shipping containers or drifting garbage to fragments of Flight MH370
  • Among ocean experts, opinion differs over how much non-plane debris is in the area
  • Southern Indian Ocean is one of world's least researched areas
  • In absence of better data, retrieving floating debris can help narrow search for "black box" recorders
  • But shortage of live satellite data, turbulence and passage of time since flight's disappearance hamper search for debris
An Australian plane then went to relocate the items and spotted "two blue/grey rectangular objects", and three other planes reported similar sightings.
The Chinese patrol ship Haixun 01 is in the search area and will be despatched to relocate the objects on Saturday, Amsa said.
Earlier, the Australian and Malaysian governments said the focus on the new search area was based on further analysis of radar data that showed the plane had been travelling faster, thus burning more fuel.
Search efforts had until Friday morning focused on an area some 2,500km (1,550 miles) to the south-west of the Australian city of Perth.
An image of one of the objects spotted by a New Zealand plane on Friday

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